Forecasting the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 9, 2017. Of the 77 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 52 have been American citizens. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (6), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 9. 


Congratulations to Richard Thaler (University of Chicago) as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his contributions to behavioural economics."  

Unfortunately, no one chose this year's winner.  Better luck next year.

Forecasting the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 11, 2016. Of the 75 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 52 have been American citizens. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 11. 

Congratulations to Oliver Hart (Harvard University) and Bengt Holmstrom (MIT) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for their contribution to contract theory."

Unfortunately, no one made this forecast.  Better luck next year.

Forecasting the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 12, 2015. Of the 74 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 51 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 12. 

Congratulations to Angus Deaton of Princeton University as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his analysis in consumption, poverty, and welfare."

Also, congratulations to Jacob Roope for being the first (and only) person to identify Deaton as the winner.

Forecasting the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 13, 2014. Of the 73 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 51 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 13.

Congratulations to Jean Tirole (University of Toulouse) as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his analysis of market power and regulation."  

Unfortunately, no one made this forecast.  Better luck next year.

Forecasting the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 14, 2013. Of the 70 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 48 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 14.

Congratulations to Eugene Fama (Chicago), Lars Hansen (Chicago), and Robert Shiller (Yale) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical analysis of asset prices."

Unfortunately, no one forecasted any of the three to win this year's prize.

Forecasting the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 15, 2012. Of the 68 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 48 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 15.

Congratulations to Al Roth (Harvard) and Lloyd Shapley (UCLA) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their work on "the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design." 

Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.

Forecasting the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 10, 2011. Of the 66 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 46 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier timestamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 10.

Congratulations to Thomas Sargent (NYU) and Christopher Sims (Princeton) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy."


Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.

Name That Economist

He's tall. He's ranked in the top 20 at IDEAS. He blogs. He's a macro-wonk.

Congratulations to Yang Yang for correctly identifying N. Gregory Mankiw as the mystery economist. A Harvard economist, Mankiw is a renowned macroeconomist and a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors for President George W. Bush. He is the author of two popular textbooks in the field and also blogs on a regular basis. And he is 6'2" tall.

Name That Model

Whenever the renters of self-storage units default on their payments, the owner has the right to sell the contents of the units to the highest bidder. In some states, potential buyers are prohibited from examining the detailed contents of the units; rather, they are merely allowed to "peek" inside before the bidding process starts.

The type of auction described above is an example of a more general situation that economists have studied and modeled. Can you identify the relevant model? What does the model suggest is the optimal bidding strategy in such situations? Winners of such auctions are often said to suffer from a particular fate--can you name it?

Congratulations to Yuan Tao--a three-time winner this semester--for correctly identifying the common value auction (and its associated "winner's curse").

Forecasting the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 11, 2010. Of the 63 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 44 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier timestamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 11.

Congratulations to Peter Diamond (MIT), Dale Mortensen (Northwestern), and Christopher Pissarides (London School of Economics) as the winners of this year's Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for their work on search frictions in economic markets.

Unfortunately, nobody correctly forecasted this year's winners.

Highest Grossing Film Of All Time?

Appearing in 2009, James Cameron's Avatar has generated $2,768,529,651&0000002768529651000000 in world-wide gross revenues (according to this link). It is not, however, the highest grossing film of all time when you take into account inflation.

Using the most recent figures for the CPI, calculate the inflation-adjusted gross earnings using the figures supplied by the link above in order to determine the highest grossing film of all time as expressed in August 2010 dollars. Show all of your calculations.

Congratulations to Yuan Tao, our first two-time winner this semester. See his calculations on the top grossing film of all time, Gone With The Wind, in the comments section. Bottom line: $6,285,131,159!

Name That Economist

She's been an Engineer (MIT), a Tiger (Princeton), and a Bear (Cal-Berkeley). Primarily a macroeconomist, her research focuses on the determinants of business cycles and the impact of fiscal and monetary policies.

Congratulations to Keyuan Gu for being the first to identify Christina Romer as the mystery economist. Dr. Romer, the outgoing Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, is well known for her early research on the volatility of the economy before and after WWII. Her later research examined the impact of government spending and tax policies on the macroeconomy.

Food Scarcity

The Worldwatch Institute regularly predicts an increased scarcity of grain worldwide in the coming years and warns that the world is about to run out of food. How could you use the commodity futures page in the newspaper to evaluate this prediction? If professional speculators disagree with the forecasts of the Worldwatch Institute, in who forecasts would you have more confidence? Why?

Name That Economist

Do you know who I am? I am a bestselling author of advanced microeconomics textbooks and a former Golden Bear academic official. I now work as the top economist for a private sector company on the West Coast.

Congratulations to Yuan Tao for being the first to correctly identify Hal Varian as the mystery economist. Varian is a microeconomist who specializes in the economics of information. He is the former Dean of the UC-Berkeley's School of Information and now serves as the Chief Economist for Google.

CAFE, s'il vous plait.

Suppose the government raises the fuel economy standard for automobiles from its current 27.5 MPG to 35 MPG by 2020. Will this necessarily mean that Americans will use less gasoline in 2020? Explain why or why not.

Congratulations to Yang Yang for identifying the often overlooked behavioral response that is likely to happen when fuel economy increases. While Tao Yuan correctly identifies a number of other factors that could influence the ultimate consumption choices of gasoline buyers, it was the impact of the rule itself that I was looking for.

Ugly Criminals

An economist friend of mine made the following claim: "Criminals are uglier than law-abiding people--it's simple economics at work."

Provide an economic explanation for the above claim. Also, provide one testable hypothesis regarding this claim.

Tequila flavored beer, anyone?

Alcohol is illegal in the dorms at Abstinens College. Why are students more likely to sneak in a couple bottles of, say, tequila, rather than cases of beer, even though most would rather drink beer than tequila?

Congratulations to Yuan Tao for being the first to provide a plausible economic analysis of the drinking dilemma described above.

Name That Economist

While Keynes is often thought of as the "father of modern macroeconomics," this Scandinavian economist could also lay claim to the title. Known for his socialist leanings, he favored the development of a welfare state that sought to redistribute income to those less fortunate. Our mystery economist was also known to espouse provocative views on various social issues...even leading to some time in jail because of his views.

Congratulations to Yang Yang for being the first (and only) person to correctly identify Knut Wicksell as the mystery economist.

Gasoline boycott?

The price of gasoline is now exorbitant. A good scheme for solving the problem is for consumers to boycott gasoline, driving down its price; when the price is low, consumers can resume their higher purchases.

True or False? Explain your answer.

Congratulations to Jennifer Wolfe for being the first to provide a correct answer to this week's question.

Name That Economist

Here is a haiku to describe the mystery economist:

His foundations told,
a math story of econ,
and led to a prize.

Your answer must also come in the form of a haiku!

Congratulations to William Hamilton for correctly identifying Paul Samuelson as the mystery economist (and using a haiku along the way).