Forecasting the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 9, 2017. Of the 77 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 52 have been American citizens. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (6), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 9. 


Congratulations to Richard Thaler (University of Chicago) as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his contributions to behavioural economics."  

Unfortunately, no one chose this year's winner.  Better luck next year.

Forecasting the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 11, 2016. Of the 75 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 52 have been American citizens. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 11. 

Congratulations to Oliver Hart (Harvard University) and Bengt Holmstrom (MIT) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for their contribution to contract theory."

Unfortunately, no one made this forecast.  Better luck next year.

Forecasting the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 12, 2015. Of the 74 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 51 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 12. 

Congratulations to Angus Deaton of Princeton University as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his analysis in consumption, poverty, and welfare."

Also, congratulations to Jacob Roope for being the first (and only) person to identify Deaton as the winner.

Forecasting the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 13, 2014. Of the 73 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 51 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 13.

Congratulations to Jean Tirole (University of Toulouse) as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his analysis of market power and regulation."  

Unfortunately, no one made this forecast.  Better luck next year.

Forecasting the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 14, 2013. Of the 70 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 48 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 14.

Congratulations to Eugene Fama (Chicago), Lars Hansen (Chicago), and Robert Shiller (Yale) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical analysis of asset prices."

Unfortunately, no one forecasted any of the three to win this year's prize.

Forecasting the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 15, 2012. Of the 68 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 48 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 15.

Congratulations to Al Roth (Harvard) and Lloyd Shapley (UCLA) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their work on "the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design." 

Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.

Forecasting the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 10, 2011. Of the 66 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 46 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier timestamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 10.

Congratulations to Thomas Sargent (NYU) and Christopher Sims (Princeton) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy."


Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.