Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Forecasting the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 13, 2014. Of the 73 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 51 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (12), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 13.

Congratulations to Jean Tirole (University of Toulouse) as this year's winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences "for his analysis of market power and regulation."  

Unfortunately, no one made this forecast.  Better luck next year.



Friday, October 4, 2013

Forecasting the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics


The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 14, 2013. Of the 70 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 48 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Harvard (5), Columbia (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).
Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 14.

Congratulations to Eugene Fama (Chicago), Lars Hansen (Chicago), and Robert Shiller (Yale) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical analysis of asset prices."

Unfortunately, no one forecasted any of the three to win this year's prize.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Forecasting the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics


The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 15, 2012. Of the 68 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 48 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).
Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier time stamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 15.

Congratulations to Al Roth (Harvard) and Lloyd Shapley (UCLA) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their work on "the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design." 

Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Forecasting the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics


The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 10, 2011. Of the 66 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 46 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier timestamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 10.

Congratulations to Thomas Sargent (NYU) and Christopher Sims (Princeton) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy."


Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.

Monday, November 1, 2010

Name That Economist

He's tall. He's ranked in the top 20 at IDEAS. He blogs. He's a macro-wonk.

Congratulations to Yang Yang for correctly identifying N. Gregory Mankiw as the mystery economist. A Harvard economist, Mankiw is a renowned macroeconomist and a former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors for President George W. Bush. He is the author of two popular textbooks in the field and also blogs on a regular basis. And he is 6'2" tall.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Name That Model

Whenever the renters of self-storage units default on their payments, the owner has the right to sell the contents of the units to the highest bidder. In some states, potential buyers are prohibited from examining the detailed contents of the units; rather, they are merely allowed to "peek" inside before the bidding process starts.

The type of auction described above is an example of a more general situation that economists have studied and modeled. Can you identify the relevant model? What does the model suggest is the optimal bidding strategy in such situations? Winners of such auctions are often said to suffer from a particular fate--can you name it?

Congratulations to Yuan Tao--a three-time winner this semester--for correctly identifying the common value auction (and its associated "winner's curse").


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Forecasting the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 11, 2010. Of the 63 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 44 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier timestamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 11.

Congratulations to Peter Diamond (MIT), Dale Mortensen (Northwestern), and Christopher Pissarides (London School of Economics) as the winners of this year's Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for their work on search frictions in economic markets.

Unfortunately, nobody correctly forecasted this year's winners.