Forecasting the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics

The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (aka the Nobel Prize in Economics) will be announced on Monday, October 10, 2011. Of the 66 men and 1 woman who have won the award outright or shared in it since the prize began in 1969, 46 have been Americans. The leading university homes of the winners include the University of Chicago (10), followed by the University of California-Berkeley (5), Columbia (4), Harvard (4), and Cambridge University, England (4).

Now, let's see how well you can forecast. Who will be awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics? Your educated guess must be posted as a comment to this post before the Nobel Prize announcement is made. In the event that more than one person submits identical guesses, the earlier timestamp of the comment will determine the winner. The bonus points will be added to the winner's next exam score following the Nobel announcement on October 10.

Congratulations to Thomas Sargent (NYU) and Christopher Sims (Princeton) as this year's winners of the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences for their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy."


Unfortunately, no one correctly predicted either of them to win this year.